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Obi Leads Tinubu, Atiku, Kwankwaso In Fresh Anap Poll

For the second time in four months, a new poll concluded in December has shown that the 2023 presidential candidate of the Labour Party (LP), Peter Obi is ahead of the three other frontline candidates.

The poll conducted by NOI Polls Limited and commissioned by Anap Foundation showed that Obi leads Bola Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC); Atiku Abubakar of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria People’s Party (NNPP).

Anap Foundation President, Atedo Peterside made this known during a live appearance on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on Wednesday.

He said the election has moved past a three-horse race, as said in an earlier poll released in September, to a four-horse race.

Peterside said Obi has 23 percent, Tinubu scored 13, Atiku got 10 and Kwankwaso polled 2 percent in the fresh poll released in December.

“Nobody has gained or lost more than 2, 3 percent. I don’t know whether that is good news or bad news but it is as if nothing has happened fundamentally, no significant shift,” he said.

Atedo Peterside while speaking on Channels Television’s Politics Today programme on December 21, 2022

He said mobile phones were the instruments used to conduct the poll because of increased mobile phone penetration in the country, adding that a large percentage of people are undecided.

Peterside also said the interest level in the next general elections is driven by economic challenges plaguing the nation, poverty, insecurity, amongst others.

He noted that the appetite of the youths in this election is high and carpeted candidates who have dodged presidential debates.

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Anap Foundation had released a similar poll in September in which Obi also led the other 17 candidates in the race for Aso Rock’s top job in 2023.

Read full statement:

Peter Obi consolidates lead in a Fragmented Presidential Race

21 December 2022

Ahead of the forthcoming 2023 Presidential elections, a recent nationwide opinion poll commissioned by Anap Foundation and conducted by NOI Polls Limited was concluded in early December 2022. The Poll revealed a significant lead by Mr. Peter Obi of the Labour Party (LP), with Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu of the All Progressives Congress (APC) and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP) both trailing him. Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) emerged as the lone outsider.

The results showed a significant lead for Mr. Peter Obi with 23% of voters proposing to vote for him if the presidential election were to be conducted today; and 13% proposing to vote for Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu who fell in second place. Alhaji Abubakar Atiku was third with 10% and Dr. Rabiu Kwankwaso was a distant fourth with 2% of voters proposing to vote for him.

Mr. Peter Obi’s 10%-point lead at this stage is significant, but not sufficient to separate him from a leading pack of candidates scoring 13%, 10% and 2%.

Undecided voters and those who prefer not to reveal their preferred candidate add up to a whopping 29% and 23% respectively. The gender split of undecided voters shows that 38% of women are undecided versus 21% of male voters.

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Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?

Poll Question: Suppose the presidential election is being conducted today, who are you likely to vote for?
Total (%) Distribution across Geo-Political Zones Poll Ranking
North Central North East North West South East South South South West
Peter Obi (LP) 23% 24% 8% 11% 50% 46% 15% 1st
Bola Tinubu (APC) 13% 9% 15% 15% 1% 9% 22% 2nd
Atiku Abubakar (PDP) 10% 8% 23% 17% 1% 3% 4% 3rd
Rabiu Kwankwaso (NNPP) 2% 1% 2% 6% 0% 1% 1% 4th
Undecided 29% 35% 38% 32% 25% 26% 20%
Refused 23% 23% 14% 19% 23% 15% 38%
Total 100%
Source: NOIPolls – December2022

The percentage of registered voters and/or voters with their permanent voter’s card is as follows in each of the zones – 90% in the North East, 89% in the South West and 88% in the South South. The lowest voter registration percentages were recorded in the North Central with 87%, North West with 86% and the South East with 84%.

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